Poking the bear
I recently re-read The Guns of August by Barbara Tuchman. Published in 1962, it’s a superb analysis looking at why Europe stumbled into World War I after almost fifty years of peace and prosperity. The miscalculations of the major powers in 1914 led to a four-year conflict that killed millions and destabilized Europe for decades afterward. Tuchman’s book is especially timely now as we watch some of the geopolitical maneuvers of today’s international players and the risks that that come with foreign policy brinkmanship.
In the past week, HMS Defender, a British warship, was harassed by Russian forces while sailing in the waters off Crimea in the Black Sea. The ship was operating as part of a US – supported military exercise called Operation Sea Breeze. More than 30 NATO ships, a large number of allied aircraft, and about 5,000 troops are involved in this exercise. The intent of all this, we are told, is to reassure Ukraine that any Russian moves to further annex that country’s territory will be met with opposing force.
Now think for a moment where this NATO exercise is taking place. Perhaps look at a map. Essentially, this military training operation is going on in Russia’s back yard. It would be like having a Russian-led naval operation going in in the Gulf of Mexico. You can imagine how this country would react. We get excited enough when a few Russian aircraft skirt Alaskan airspace. It is understandable that Russia sees the exercise as a provocation.
This is in no way denies that Putin’s Russia is a bad actor with credible accusations of its cyber hacking activity and its arrest and detainment of political dissidents. The country has grabbed territory from Ukraine and seems bent on pressuring former Soviet republics to fall inline with Russian interests. The leadership is corrupt. There is no such thing as freedom of the press and the judicial system is a farce. Containment is a legitimate strategy.
But Russia has good reason to be wary of the West. Twice in the modern age, the country has been invaded by western powers. The cost in lives is estimated to be in the millions. The physical destruction of the country, particularly during the Second World War, was horrendous. With the fall of the Soviet Union in 1989, a host of former satellite republics were enticed to join NATO and given membership in the European Union. In its weakened state, there wasn’t much Russia could do about it. Isolation has only increased Russia’s feeling of inferiority in relation to the rest of Europe. Thus, the understandable defensive mind-set of the country’s leadership today.
Tuchman’s book details the delicate balance of power between the great powers in the first decades of the twentieth century. Alliances, military buildups and mobilizations, and the increasing hyper-nationalism of that time, threatened that balance. It just took a spark to cause the whole thing to crumble. When Archduke Francis Ferdinand was assassinated in Serbia in the summer of 1914, that was the match that sent Europe into a war that seemed impossible in the previous years.
As always, there are lessons to be learned in examining what happened in the past. Back in the day, it was common when the circus came to a town to have a tethered bear who would fight people for money. Usually, some fool would take up the challenge and would poke and taunt the bear. The animal would take it for a while and then, it’s patience exhausted, it would slam the antagonist down, often doing a lot of damage to the hapless opponent. People back then learned that it was dangerous to provoke a bear. Our leaders would be wise to learn the same lesson.
7/1/21
